The model in two scenarios: a modest case built on organic growth alone, and an expected case where businesses, partners and organisations run campaigns through the platform — and visitors themselves promote the trail with every photo and story they share.
Both scenarios use the same trail, the same streams and the same running costs. The difference is activity: the modest case assumes the trail simply exists and grows by word of mouth; the expected case assumes the marketing machinery this programme actually builds gets used.
No paid promotion, no coordinated campaigns — visitors arrive through word of mouth, passing tourism and the trail's own presence. Growth of ~15% per year on a 10,000-visitor opening season.
Businesses, partners and organisations run seasonal campaigns through the platform — each bringing its own audience — while visitors promote the trail themselves, sharing photos with David Gordon, AR moments and Fields of Athenry singalong clips. Every share is an advertisement that costs nothing. Growth of ~30% per year on a 12,000-visitor campaign-supported opening season.
Everything in this model flows from one number: how many people walk the trail. Each visitor is also a promoter — the platform prompts sharing at photo-worthy moments and rewards it with points, so in the expected case the audience compounds rather than merely grows.
| Trail visitors | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modest10,000 opening season · ~15% organic growth | 10,000 | 11,500 | 13,200 | 15,200 | 17,500 |
| Expected12,000 campaign-supported opening · ~30% compound growth | 12,000 | 15,600 | 20,300 | 26,400 | 34,300 |
Host revenue per year under each scenario. The streams are identical; the expected case simply reflects fuller sponsorship uptake, more participating businesses, campaign-driven reward activity and a larger visitor base buying merchandise and premium experiences.
| Modest revenue stream | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sponsored stops5 → 10 stops · €1,000/stop/year | €5,000 | €7,000 | €9,000 | €10,000 | €10,000 |
| Business placements15 → 40 businesses · tiered from €350/year | €5,300 | €7,000 | €8,800 | €10,500 | €14,000 |
| Reward campaign marginHost margin on business-funded voucher campaigns | €2,000 | €3,200 | €4,400 | €5,600 | €6,800 |
| AR merchandise margin~8% of trail users purchase · €4 average margin | €3,200 | €3,700 | €4,200 | €4,900 | €5,600 |
| Premium experiencesGuided groups, schools & VR sessions | €4,500 | €6,000 | €7,500 | €9,000 | €10,500 |
| Programme licensing shareFounding-pilot revenue share, Year 2+ | €0 | €2,400 | €4,200 | €6,600 | €9,000 |
| Total revenue | €20,000 | €29,300 | €38,100 | €46,600 | €55,900 |
| Care plan (indicative) | −€6,000 | −€6,000 | −€6,000 | −€6,000 | −€6,000 |
| Net surplus | €14,000 | €23,300 | €32,100 | €40,600 | €49,900 |
| Cumulative net | €14,000 | €37,300 | €69,400 | €110,000 | €159,900 |
| Expected revenue stream | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sponsored stopsAll 10 stops sponsored by Year 3 · premium €1,200/stop | €7,200 | €10,800 | €12,000 | €12,000 | €12,000 |
| Business placements15 → 60 businesses · campaigns lift average tier to €400 | €6,000 | €10,000 | €14,000 | €19,000 | €24,000 |
| Reward campaign marginSeasonal campaigns run by businesses, partners & organisations | €3,000 | €5,500 | €8,000 | €10,500 | €13,000 |
| AR merchandise margin~8% of the larger visitor base · €4 average margin | €3,800 | €5,000 | €6,500 | €8,400 | €11,000 |
| Premium experiencesGroups, schools, VR & event sessions at campaign-driven demand | €6,000 | €8,500 | €11,000 | €14,000 | €17,000 |
| Programme licensing shareA proven success story licenses faster, Year 2+ | €0 | €3,600 | €6,600 | €9,600 | €13,200 |
| Total revenue | €26,000 | €43,400 | €58,100 | €73,500 | €90,200 |
| Care plan (indicative) | −€7,500 | −€7,500 | −€7,500 | −€7,500 | −€7,500 |
| Net surplus | €18,500 | €35,900 | €50,600 | €66,000 | €82,700 |
| Cumulative net | €18,500 | €54,400 | €105,000 | €171,000 | €253,700 |
Operating profit from the opening season in either scenario — €14,000 net modest, €18,500 net expected — with running costs covered several times over.
The modest case repays the €128,700 investment during Year 5 (124% recovered); the expected case crosses the line during Year 4 and ends Year 5 at 197%.
Clear of the original investment at expected performance — funding new stops, new languages and the community calendar with no further capital.
Spending routed into Athenry's shops, cafés, pubs and venues under each scenario. In the expected case, campaigns lift both the share of visitors who buy (38%, with offers and bundles giving more reasons to) and the average spend (€20) — and the larger audience multiplies both.
| Spending into local tills | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modest30% linked purchase · €18 average spend | €54,000 | €62,100 | €71,300 | €82,100 | €94,500 |
| Expected38% linked purchase · €20 average spend, campaign-driven | €91,200 | €118,600 | €154,300 | €200,600 | €260,700 |
Trail-driven turnover for local businesses with no campaigns at all — the floor, not the target.
With the town's businesses, partners and visitors actively promoting — more than six times the programme's entire cost, flowing through local tills.
Every redemption, tap-through and reward claim is counted, so both scenarios are replaced by real numbers season by season.
The expected scenario doesn't assume luck — it assumes the machinery this programme builds actually gets switched on.
Dozens of participating businesses each promoting their trail placements and voucher campaigns to their own customers and followers — coordinated through the marketing system, measured in the analytics, and renewed each season because the results are visible.
Schools, clubs, tidy towns, heritage bodies, tourism organisations and diaspora networks all have reasons to share the trail — the community programme gives each of them content of their own to be proud of and pass on.
The platform is built to be shared: photo moments with David Gordon at the stops, AR clips of the walls rising, the Fields of Athenry singalong — with sharing prompted at the right moments and rewarded with points. The audience recruits the next audience.
Methodology: both scenarios are indicative planning estimates, not commitments. Modest assumes 10,000 Year-1 trail users growing ~15% per year organically, a 30% linked-purchase rate and €18 average spend. Expected assumes 12,000 Year-1 users growing ~30% per year with active seasonal campaigns and platform-prompted sharing, a 38% linked-purchase rate and €20 average spend, fuller sponsorship and placement uptake, and a slightly higher care plan (€7,500/year) reflecting greater campaign activity. Both exclude grant and scheme income, gains accruing to individual businesses beyond till spend, and event-scale spikes such as festivals. A three-stop pilot season would replace all assumptions with measured numbers before full rollout.